- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?73¢73 %
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?2¢2 %
- 2,1 %↑ 5.5%Volym 58,8 tn $
- 2,1 %↑ 5.25%Volym 142,7 tn $
- 2 %↑ 5.0%Volym 21,2 tn $
- 1,8 %↑ 4.75%Volym 82,3 tn $
- 1,7 %↑ 4.5%Volym 52,6 tn $
- 4 %73,2 %↑ 4.25%Volym 154,6 tn $
- 1 %2,1 %↓ 3.25%Volym 83,5 tn $
- 1,9 %↓ 3.0%Volym 325,3 tn $
- 1,6 %↓ 2.75%Volym 379,8 tn $
- 1,5 %↓ 2.5%Volym 233,7 tn $
- 1,9 %↓ 2.25%Volym 45,6 tn $
- 2,2 %↓ 2.0%Volym 23,7 tn $
Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with September CPI at 3.7% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.1%, combined with strong Q3 GDP growth of 3.4% annualized and resilient labor market conditions at 4.2% unemployment, has anchored the federal funds rate target range at 3.75–4.00% following the October 28 hold. Markets now price a high probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 9 FOMC meeting, consistent with the September dot plot median of 4.1% for end-2026. This path implies limited scope for cuts before 2027 absent softer inflation prints or labor market weakening, as policymakers emphasize data-dependent decisions to restore price stability while economic activity expands at a robust pace.
Regler
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.