- Will PP win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?60¢60 %
- Will PSOE win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?36¢36 %
- Will Vox win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1 %
- Will CCa win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1 %
14 %59,5 %PPVolym 6,8 tn $
12 %35,5 %PSOEVolym 6,4 tn $
0,9 %VoxVolym 2,4 tn $
0,2 %CCaVolym 2,5 tn $
PP holds a strong lead in Santa Cruz de Tenerife for the November 29 general election, with projections showing it ahead on roughly 30% of the vote and three of seven seats compared to PSOE on 27% and two seats. National polling trends favoring the PP over the PSOE have carried into the constituency, reinforced by recent surveys that place the PP first in this district for the first time in recent cycles. The sharp rise in migrant arrivals to the Canary Islands since early November has elevated immigration as a campaign issue, supporting gains for the PP and Vox while regional parties such as Coalición Canaria retain a narrower path to representation. With voting 17 days away and D’Hondt allocation in a seven-seat district, current trader consensus reflects the PP’s consistent polling edge and limited scope for late shifts.
Regler
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Santa Cruz de Tenerife as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).