- Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?68¢68 %
- Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?26¢26 %
- Will Atiku Abubakar win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?2¢2 %
- Will Rabiu Kwankwaso win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Seyi Makinde win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Omoyele Sowore win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Rotimi Amaechi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Sandy Onor win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?<1¢<1 %
1 %67,5 %Bola TinubuVolym 89,5 tn $
4 %26 %Peter ObiVolym 31,7 tn $
5 %1,5 %Atiku AbubakarVolym 3 tn $
5 %0,9 %Rabiu KwankwasoVolym 7,1 tn $
4 %0,9 %Seyi MakindeVolym 2,4 tn $
0,7 %Omoyele SoworeVolym 9 tn $
0,2 %Rotimi AmaechiVolym 7,9 tn $
0,2 %Sandy OnorVolym 2,1 tn $
Trader consensus on the 2027 Nigerian presidential election assigns Bola Tinubu the highest implied probability due to incumbency advantages, All Progressives Congress organizational strength, and opposition fragmentation between Peter Obi’s New Democratic Congress ticket with Rabiu Kwankwaso and Atiku Abubakar’s African Democratic Congress bid. Recent projections, including from The Economist, highlight how regional voting patterns, zoning expectations for a southern completion of the presidential term, and historically low turnout in key areas could sustain Tinubu’s position despite economic pressures from reforms and security concerns. Obi’s active campaigning and criticism of Tinubu’s capacity have sustained his second-place pricing, while analyst assessments note potential state-level gains for the incumbent from recent defections. Upcoming formal campaign activities and voter mobilization efforts remain key variables ahead of the January vote.
Regler
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).