- Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?87¢87 %
- Will John Barrasso be the next US Senate Minority Leader?4¢4 %
- Will Tom Cotton be the next US Senate Minority Leader?1¢1 %
- Will Patty Murray be the next US Senate Minority Leader?<1¢<1 %
- Will Rick Scott be the next US Senate Minority Leader?<1¢<1 %
- Will Mark Kelly be the next US Senate Minority Leader?<1¢<1 %
- Will Chuck Schumer be the next US Senate Minority Leader?<1¢<1 %
- Will Brian Schatz be the next US Senate Minority Leader?<1¢<1 %
- Will Cory Booker be the next US Senate Minority Leader?<1¢<1 %
3 %86,5 %John ThuneVolym 11,9 tn $
4 %4,5 %John BarrassoVolym 4,2 tn $
1,3 %Tom CottonVolym 1 tn $
0,7 %Patty MurrayVolym 985 $
0,4 %Rick ScottVolym 850,5 $
0,4 %Mark KellyVolym 974,5 $
0,2 %Chuck SchumerVolym 10,9 tn $
John Thune’s pre-election commitment to seek another term as Senate Republican leader, combined with the party’s loss of majority control in the 2026 midterms, has positioned him as the clear frontrunner for minority leader. Democrats flipped at least seven Republican-held seats, producing a chamber split of roughly 54–46, prompting an internal GOP leadership vote scheduled for November 10. No other senators have announced challenges, and conference members have publicly coalesced around Thune despite some dissatisfaction with the election outcome. This dynamic has driven the current market pricing, which treats his selection as the strong trader consensus while assigning minimal probability to alternatives such as John Barrasso. The resolution hinges on the closed-door caucus ballot rather than external events.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the individual who is chosen to be the first Senate Minority Leader in the Congress that convenes after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be official information from the United States Senate or official announcements from the caucus organization of the relevant party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.