- Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?33¢33 %
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?9¢9 %
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?8¢8 %
- Will Shaul Meridor be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?5¢5 %
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?3¢3 %
- Will Israel Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?2¢2 %
- Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?2¢2 %
- Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?2¢2 %
- Will Nir Barkat be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?1¢1 %
- Will Yaron Zelekha be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?1¢1 %
- Will Eli Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?1¢1 %
- Will Yair Golan be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?<1¢<1 %
- 6 %33 %No Next Minister by Feb 28Volym 64,6 tn $
2 %9,4 %Avigdor LiebermanVolym 15 tn $
3 %7,5 %Naftali BennettVolym 19,1 tn $
2 %4,8 %Shaul MeridorVolym 6 tn $
1 %3,1 %Gadi EizenkotVolym 2 tn $
1 %2,2 %Israel KatzVolym 2,2 tn $
1,8 %Bezalel SmotrichVolym 5,8 tn $
1,6 %Yair LapidVolym 5 tn $
1,4 %Nir BarkatVolym 6,3 tn $
1,3 %Yaron ZelekhaVolym 18,9 tn $
1,3 %Eli CohenVolym 2,9 tn $
0,6 %Yair GolanVolym 1 tn $
Israeli politics around the finance minister role centers on coalition stability and potential cabinet adjustments within the current government structure. Multiple candidates such as Avigdor Lieberman, Naftali Bennett, and others register closely matched trader-implied probabilities, reflecting dispersed expectations over leadership transitions and economic policy priorities. The 38% chance assigned to no appointment by late February highlights continuity risks tied to parliamentary votes and party bargaining. Recent statements from senior officials and legislative timelines keep the field open, while any formal resignation, coalition agreement, or Knesset vote could consolidate support for one contender by clarifying eligibility and mandate.
Regler
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Finance in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Finance will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Finance” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Finance are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Finance assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.