- Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?91¢91 %
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?52¢52 %
- Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?23¢23 %
- Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?18¢18 %
- Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7¢7 %
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6¢6 %
- Will Gabriel Attal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6¢6 %
- Will Dominique de Villepin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6¢6 %
- Will Sébastien Lecornu advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?5¢5 %
- Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?5¢5 %
- Will Bruno Retailleau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?5¢5 %
- Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?5¢5 %
90,5 %Marine Le PenVolym 32,3 tn $
3 %51,5 %Jean-Luc MélenchonVolym 34,1 tn $
1 %22,5 %Édouard PhilippeVolym 16,2 tn $
1 %18,5 %David LisnardVolym 243,7 tn $
7 %Jordan BardellaVolym 25 tn $
6,4 %Raphaël GlucksmannVolym 17 tn $
5,6 %Gabriel AttalVolym 9,2 tn $
5,5 %Dominique de VillepinVolym 3 tn $
5,4 %Sébastien LecornuVolym 3,2 tn $
5,2 %Sarah KnafoVolym 8 tn $
5,1 %Bruno RetailleauVolym 4,4 tn $
4,5 %François HollandeVolym 20,6 tn $
Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National maintains a commanding lead in first-round polling averages near 35 percent, positioning her as the near-certain qualifier for the May 2027 runoff. Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise holds second place around 17 percent, outpacing fragmented centrist and center-right options including Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal. Recent infighting among Macron-aligned figures has split the moderate vote, boosting Mélenchon’s qualification odds across multiple October and early November surveys. Raphaël Glucksmann’s October primary win on the center-left has not yet altered the top-two pattern. The first round is scheduled for April 18, 2027, with trader pricing reflecting sustained polarization and limited consolidation among non-extreme candidates.
Regler
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).