- Will the DPP win 5 or fewer Taiwanese head of local government races?10¢10 %
- Will the DPP win 6 Taiwanese head of local government races?6¢6 %
- Will the DPP win 7 Taiwanese head of local government races?14¢14 %
- Will the DPP win 8 Taiwanese head of local government races?21¢21 %
- Will the DPP win 9 Taiwanese head of local government races?20¢20 %
- Will the DPP win 10 Taiwanese head of local government races?14¢14 %
- Will the DPP win 11 Taiwanese head of local government races?15¢15 %
- Will the DPP win 12 or more Taiwanese head of local government races?14¢14 %
- 6 %9,5 %≤5Volym 314,3 $
- 3 %6 %6Volym 992,8 $
- 13,5 %7Volym 1,4 tn $
- 7 %21 %8Volym 1,5 tn $
- 2 %19,5 %9Volym 981 $
- 1 %13,5 %10Volym 1,4 tn $
- 1 %15 %11Volym 1,2 tn $
- 10 %14 %≥12Volym 1,5 tn $
The tight clustering of probabilities around 8–11 wins for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan’s 22 mayor and magistrate races stems from closely contested campaigns in northern and central swing areas two weeks before the November 28 vote. Recent polling shows fluctuating leads in New Taipei, where DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui faces KMT’s Lee Shu-chuan, and in Taipei, where DPP’s Puma Shen challenges KMT incumbent Chiang Wan-an, alongside competitive dynamics in Taichung and Keelung. These races contrast with DPP’s stronger traditional base in southern strongholds such as Tainan and Kaohsiung. With 2022 results leaving the DPP at five seats, trader pricing reflects uncertainty over whether modest northern gains can lift the total into double digits or leave it near prior levels, pending final turnout and late-campaign shifts.
Regler
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of Mayor and Magistrate elections for Taiwan’s special municipalities, counties, and cities won by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County If the results of the 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).