- Government shutdown by December 12?26¢26 %
- Government shutdown by December 31?35¢35 %
- 1 %26 %December 12Volym 16,6 tn $
- 3 %35 %December 31Volym 11 tn $
Congress faces a December 11 funding deadline under the current continuing resolution enacted in September, after which a lapse would begin December 12 absent new appropriations or another extension. Lawmakers return November 9 for a lame-duck session that also includes expiring surface transportation and farm bill authorities. Democrats' midterm gains shift leverage for the incoming Congress, increasing prospects for prolonged negotiations over spending levels, policy riders, and agency funding in a divided-government environment. Recent 2026 shutdowns totaling over 80 days illustrate recurring brinkmanship, though both parties have repeatedly passed stopgaps to avert full lapses ahead of elections or deadlines. Trader consensus on related prediction markets reflects moderate odds of a shutdown by year-end.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown. Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown. The following will qualify as a shutdown: - An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time - An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency") The following will not qualify as a shutdown: - A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations - Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.