- Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?85¢85 %
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?4¢4 %
- Will Christine Lagarde win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?3¢3 %
- Will Édouard Philippe win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?3¢3 %
- Will David Lisnard win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2 %
- Will Jordan Bardella win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2 %
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will François Hollande win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Gabriel Attal win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Dominique de Villepin win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Sarah Knafo win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
1 %84,5 %Marine Le PenVolym 46 tn $
5 %3,9 %Jean-Luc MélenchonVolym 26,7 tn $
3,1 %Christine LagardeVolym 2,3 tn $
2,9 %Édouard PhilippeVolym 5,8 tn $
1 %2,3 %David LisnardVolym 5,7 tn $
1,9 %Jordan BardellaVolym 4,9 tn $
0,4 %Raphaël GlucksmannVolym 5,5 tn $
0,3 %François HollandeVolym 1,8 tn $
0,2 %Gabriel AttalVolym 1,7 tn $
0,2 %Dominique de VillepinVolym 2,3 tn $
Marine Le Pen leads first-round voting intentions at around 34-37% in recent October 2026 polls, well ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Édouard Philippe, positioning her as the clear frontrunner to top the April 2027 ballot under France’s two-round system. Trader consensus reflects this sustained advantage, driven by National Rally consolidation after its late-October congress, Le Pen’s campaign launch emphasizing national unity under a potential Bardella government, and a divided field among centrist, left, and traditional right contenders. Recent polling stability and low support for alternatives like Christine Lagarde or Jordan Bardella further reinforce the implied probability, though outcomes remain subject to shifts from turnout, alliances, or late developments before the first round.
Regler
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).