- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?14¢14 %
The Islamic Republic’s security apparatus, including the IRGC and Basij, has demonstrated cohesion amid leadership decapitation in February 2026 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, nationwide protests suppressed at high cost, and sustained U.S.-Israeli military and economic pressure. Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession and expanded IRGC influence stabilized command structures without major defections, while recent low-level incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled Qatar-mediated talks following the November 2026 U.S. midterms have produced no decisive shift in internal control. Traders assign the “No” outcome an 86.5% implied probability because these factors indicate the regime can likely endure through mid-2027 absent unforeseen elite fractures or coordinated external escalation capable of overriding its repression capacity.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.