- Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?48¢48 %
Recent polling averages place the combined vote share for PP and Vox near 49–51 percent in the final weeks before the November 29 election, reflecting Vox’s gains since 2023 alongside modest PP erosion and PSOE resilience in several surveys. The snap election call, triggered by the defeat of housing decrees, has sharpened focus on economic pressures and regional alliances that influence turnout and bloc consolidation. With the outcome hinging on marginal shifts among undecided voters and smaller parties, late-campaign developments such as turnout differentials or targeted mobilization in key provinces could determine whether the right-wing parties cross 50 percent. Trader pricing at 53 percent for the “No” outcome captures this narrow competitive balance.
Reguli
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Party (PP) and Vox receive a combined total of 50% or more of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to PP or Vox, including under any regional designation of either party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, or coalition agreements. The combined vote share will be calculated as the total number of valid votes received by PP and Vox divided by the total number of valid votes cast, as reported in the official results. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).