- Will the next Israeli government hold fewer than 58 seats?62¢62 %
- Will the next Israeli government hold between 58 and 60 seats?3¢3 %
- Will the next Israeli government hold between 61 and 63 seats?19¢19 %
- Will the next Israeli government hold between 64 and 66 seats?7¢7 %
- Will the next Israeli government hold between 67 and 69 seats?3¢3 %
- Will the next Israeli government hold between 70 and 72 seats?6¢6 %
- Will the next Israeli government hold 73 or more seats?1¢1 %
- 10 %61,5 %<58Vol. 11,7 K $
- 12 %3 %58-60Vol. 8,6 K $
- 7 %19 %61-63Vol. 1,5 K $
- 4 %6,9 %64-66Vol. 3,7 K $
- 2,6 %67-69Vol. 414 $
- 4 %6 %70-72Vol. 1,7 K $
- 1,2 %73+Vol. 381,8 $
Recent Israeli legislative elections produced a fragmented Knesset, with Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc securing 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc at 48, while Arab parties reached a record 19. Neither bloc approaches the 61-seat threshold for a majority, and most Zionist parties have ruled out cooperation with Arab factions. President Herzog assigned Eisenkot the initial mandate to form a government following consultations, yet coalition talks remain stalled amid competing demands from Haredi, centrist, and right-wing parties. High turnout and post-election maneuvering have reinforced trader expectations of a narrow or sub-majority government, with limited near-term paths to larger coalitions exceeding 60 seats.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the Knesset held by the parties included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. The government is considered formed at the moment the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. Only the seats attributed to the government's parties at that moment will be considered; seats gained or lost afterward will not affect the resolution of this market. Seats will be attributed to parties according to the Knesset factions in place at the time of that vote. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, abstentions, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not count toward the government's seat total. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.