- National Popular Vote Compact implemented before the 2028 election?30¢30 %
Recent Democratic trifectas in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada following the 2026 midterms have created a legislative pathway to add 61 electoral votes to the existing 222 in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, potentially exceeding the 270 threshold needed for activation ahead of 2028. Lawmakers in those states have begun discussing introduction of joining legislation in 2027 sessions. However, enactment requires passage through both chambers and gubernatorial approval in each, a process that failed in Michigan during its prior Democratic control and faced veto in Nevada previously. Republican opposition, including constitutional challenges under the Compact Clause and questions over congressional consent, plus the tight timeline to meet the July 2028 cutoff, sustain trader consensus favoring non-implementation at 71 percent.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the states and the District of Columbia that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact into law collectively hold a majority of the electoral votes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will consider all jurisdictions that have concurrently enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact into law, with the intent for it to be in effect for the 2028 presidential election. Electoral-vote totals are based on the apportionment of electors in effect on the resolution date. A jurisdiction that has repealed the compact or withdrawn from it, such that it is no longer a member, will not be counted. Injunctions or other legal action against the compact as a whole or any state's implementation of it will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source will be official state legislative records and the National Popular Vote organization's status page (https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/state-status); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.