- Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?3¢3 %
- Will 2 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?7¢7 %
- Will 3 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?47¢47 %
- Will 4 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?15¢15 %
- Will 5 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?30¢30 %
- Will 6 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?38¢38 %
- Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?12¢12 %
- 10 %0,9 %0Vol. 11,6 K $
- 44 %3,5 %1Vol. 670,2 $
- 13 %6,7 %2Vol. 449,7 $
- 35 %47 %3Vol. 265,9 $
- 2 %15,3 %4Vol. 330,1 $
- 4 %30 %5Vol. 362,9 $
- 12 %37,8 %6Vol. 475,8 $
- 1 %11,5 %7+Vol. 2,1 K $
Republican midterm losses have intensified expectations of additional Trump cabinet turnover before December 31, driving the highest probabilities toward three to six departures. Earlier 2026 exits of officials including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Tulsi Gabbard established a pattern of rapid personnel changes tied to congressional scrutiny, agency performance, and the Iran conflict. The November 6 announcement of White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles' resignation, alongside multiple Justice Department departures, has accelerated trader focus on further exits. Speculation centers on figures such as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth amid calls for accountability over the war and midterm results, while officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio have publicly committed to staying through the term. These developments position moderate-to-elevated turnover as the prevailing market consensus in the final weeks of the year.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.