- Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?48¢48 %
- Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?41¢41 %
- Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?5¢5 %
- Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?4¢4 %
- Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?<1¢<1 %
- Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?<1¢<1 %
5 %47,5 %MorenaVol. 6,3 K $
4 %41 %PANVol. 3,7 K $
5 %MCVol. 3,2 K $
1 %3,8 %PVEMVol. 2,5 K $
0,6 %PRIVol. 3,4 K $
0,2 %PTVol. 1,8 K $
The 2024 Chihuahua state elections produced a narrowly divided congress, with PAN securing 12 seats through strong performance in majority-relative districts and Morena claiming 11-12 via a combination of direct and proportional representation, leaving both parties as the primary contenders for influence. Recent legislative activity in the LXVIII legislature, including quorum disputes, leadership rotations favoring PAN, and Morena-led opposition on key votes, has sustained trader focus on their relative strength. Ongoing positioning ahead of 2027 contests, coupled with stable but competitive polling trends between the two, continues to keep implied probabilities tight without decisive separation.
Reguli
Legislative elections to elect the 33 members of the Congress of the State of Chihuahua are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Chihuahua as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Chihuahua. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Chihuahua, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Chihuahua and Mexico, including the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Chihuahua (https://ieechihuahua.org.mx/).