A Rússia invadirá um país da OTAN até...?
Data de início
2025-05-28
Data final
2025-12-31
Volume 24h
$2K
Volume total
$5.5M
- A Rússia irá invadir um país da OTAN até 31 de dezembro de 2026?6¢
- A Rússia invadirá um país da OTAN até 30 de setembro de 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.