What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
Escalating US-Iran hostilities have emerged as the dominant driver of WTI prices, with renewed strikes and threats to the Strait of Hormuz tightening physical supply and lifting front-month futures above $85 per barrel on September 1. Partial disruptions to tanker traffic through the critical chokepoint, combined with ongoing inventory draws averaging several million barrels per day globally and a depleted US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have embedded a geopolitical risk premium. Weak Chinese demand and downward revisions to 2026 consumption forecasts from the EIA provide some offset, yet trader positioning on Polymarket reflects elevated implied probabilities for September highs near or above $90 amid persistent shipping and production risks. Key near-term catalysts include further Hormuz flow data, FOMC signals on the dollar, and any diplomatic progress toward normalized Gulf exports.