- Nenhum corte na taxa do Fed acontecerá em 2026?87¢
- Haverá 1 corte na taxa do Fed em 2026?10¢
- Haverá 2 cortes na taxa do Fed em 2026?3¢
- Haverá 3 cortes na taxa do Fed em 2026?<1¢
- Quatro cortes na taxa do Fed acontecerão em 2026?<1¢
- Haverá 5 cortes na taxa do Fed em 2026?<1¢
- Haverá 6 cortes na taxa do Fed em 2026?<1¢
- Sete cortes na taxa do Fed ocorrerão em 2026?<1¢
- Oito cortes na taxa do Fed ocorrerão em 2026?<1¢
- Haverá 9 cortes na taxa do Fed em 2026?<1¢
- Vão acontecer 10 cortes na taxa do Fed em 2026?<1¢
- Haverá 11 cortes na taxa do Fed em 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, recently reported near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year, combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment near 4.1–4.2%) and solid economic growth, has driven the strong market-implied probability of zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026. The July FOMC statement highlighted supply shocks in energy and other sectors, prompting a 9-3 vote to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75% with three dissents favoring a hike. June dot-plot medians pointed to a 3.75–4.00% year-end rate, while futures pricing and analyst forecasts increasingly anticipate on-hold policy or modest tightening through year-end rather than easing. The September FOMC meeting remains the next key catalyst for any shift in these probabilities.