- Aumento da Taxa Fed até a Reunião de Setembro de 2026?35¢
- Aumento da Taxa Fed até a Reunião de Outubro de 2026?41¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Federal Reserve held its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent following the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, with a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike. Elevated inflation—recent CPI at 3.4 percent and core PCE near 3.3–3.7 percent—remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment, fueled by supply shocks from Middle East tensions, tariffs, and AI-related spending. Softening July employment data, including job losses and a 4.1 percent unemployment rate, has tempered near-term hike expectations ahead of the September 15–16 meeting. Markets price low odds of a September move but see potential tightening later in 2026 if inflation fails to moderate, reflecting the FOMC’s dual mandate focus on price stability amid uncertainty.