- Will CDU win less than 20% of all valid second votes?9¢
- Will CDU win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?47¢
- Will CDU win between 23% and 26% of all valid second votes?32¢
- Will CDU win at least 26% of all valid second votes?15¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polling in the final weeks before the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election shows the CDU at 22-23 percent, a sharp decline from 37 percent in 2021 and earlier 2026 surveys. Late-August figures from Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen place the party at or below 23 percent amid voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD-FDP coalition and AfD gains to 40-42 percent. This downward trend, consistent across multiple institutes since spring, positions the 20-23 percent band as the trader consensus range. Late undecided voters and turnout shifts remain the main variables that could push results into the adjacent 23-26 percent interval.