- O Parlamento japonês será dissolvido em 2026?9¢9%
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition secured a fresh mandate in the February 2026 Lower House election following the January dissolution, leaving the current four-year term with more than three years remaining as of mid-October. With a working majority intact and no no-confidence motion pending, the ruling bloc faces little institutional pressure to seek another early vote before year-end. Recent cabinet turbulence, including the agriculture minister’s resignation, has trimmed approval ratings to the low-to-mid 50s but not triggered the kind of acute crisis that historically prompts dissolution. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against a 2026 dissolution, viewing it as inconsistent with standard Japanese parliamentary practice unless unforeseen events such as coalition fracture or a sharp economic downturn materialize in the final weeks of the year.
Regras
Este mercado será resolvido como "Sim" se a atual Câmara dos Representantes do Japão for dissolvida até 31 de dezembro de 2026, 23:59 ET. Caso contrário, este mercado será resolvido como "Não". A principal fonte para a resolução deste mercado serão as informações oficiais do governo do Japão; no entanto, também será considerado um consenso de reportagens confiáveis.
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