- O Irã terá uma arma nuclear antes de 2027?3¢3%
Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA reporting no visible reconstruction efforts at those sites through late October 2026. Inspectors have lacked access since June 2025, leaving the status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium unverified amid ongoing diplomatic efforts and an IAEA referral to the UN Security Council. These developments, combined with Iran's suspension of safeguards cooperation and internal debates over NPT obligations, underpin trader consensus that weaponization timelines remain extended well beyond 2026. Remaining risks include undetected activity at undeclared locations or accelerated post-conflict decisions to enrich existing stocks further.
Regras
Este mercado será resolvido como "Sim" se relatos confiáveis de agências nucleares internacionais, do próprio governo do Irã ou de fontes globais confiáveis de notícias confirmarem oficialmente que o Irã possui uma arma nuclear até 31 de dezembro de 2026, 23:59 ET. Caso contrário, este mercado será resolvido como "Não".
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