- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vencerá o primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026 por menos de 5%?51¢
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vencerá o primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026 por 5–10%?12¢
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ganhará o primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026 por 10–15%?2¢
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vencerá o primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026 por pelo menos 15%?<1¢
- Flávio Bolsonaro vencerá o primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026 por menos de 5%?30¢
- Flávio Bolsonaro vencerá o primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026 por uma margem de 5 a 10%?8¢
- Flávio Bolsonaro vencerá o primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026 por pelo menos 10%?1¢
- Renan Santos vencerá o primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?<1¢
- Tarcisio de Freitas vencerá o primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?<1¢
- Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior vencerá o primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?<1¢
- Outra pessoa vencerá o primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).