- Will Linke win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?<1¢
- Will Linke win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?<1¢
- Will Linke win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?11¢
- Will Linke win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?33¢
- Will Linke win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?32¢
- Will Linke win 40 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?28¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Linke party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Die Linke holding steady near 19-22 percent amid a tight four-way contest with the CDU, Greens, and AfD, each within a few points of one another. The latest Infratest dimap survey placed the CDU at 21 percent after Die Linke slipped three points from prior readings, reflecting minor volatility in voter preferences on housing costs and social policy where the party’s platform has drawn support. With the 5 percent threshold likely limiting qualifying parties to five, these shares point to Die Linke securing roughly 30-39 seats depending on turnout and final distribution, consistent with trader pricing clustered around the 30-39 seat bins. Internal party tensions and coalition arithmetic for a potential Linke-Greens-SPD arrangement add uncertainty, while the current CDU-SPD government trails and faces challenges retaining its majority. Late shifts in undecided voters or turnout among key demographics could still alter the seat outcome in the final weeks.