- Will Russia capture Bilytske by November 30, 2026?59¢59 %
- Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?88¢88 %
- 1 %59 %November 30Volum 624,2 $
- 7 %88 %December 31Volum 62,9k $
Russian forces have made incremental advances toward and into parts of Bilytske in Donetsk Oblast’s Pokrovsk sector southeast of Dobropillya, with geolocated footage and mapping updates from late October through early November 2026 confirming Russian positions in central areas and nearby settlements. Ukrainian forces have responded with precision strikes on Russian drone command posts near Bilytske and conducted broader operations that disrupted Russian momentum in adjacent directions. Trader consensus on capture timelines by year-end reflects the localized pressure on Ukrainian defenses in this sector, tempered by Ukrainian counteractions, high Russian casualties, and the absence of rapid encirclement. Scheduled developments hinge on continued ground assaults and Ukrainian strikes that could alter control before resolution dates.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.