- Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?6¢6 %
- Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?11¢11 %
- 3 %6 %December 31, 2026Volum 8,9k $
- 2 %10,5 %June 30, 2027Volum 12,9k $
Recent Democratic gains in the 2026 midterm elections have shifted Senate control starting January 2027, heightening pressure on Justice Clarence Thomas to announce retirement during the lame-duck session while a Republican Senate could still confirm a successor. Thomas, the court's longest-serving justice at age 78, has given no public indication of plans to step down and has previously dismissed such suggestions. Reports from early November confirm that election results have not altered his or Justice Samuel Alito's thinking, with Alito reiterating his commitment to serve through the current term ending in summer 2027. Analysts note that any near-term departure would carry significant political optics, and markets currently price low probabilities for an announcement before key 2026-2027 deadlines.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.