- Will the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) win the most seats in the next Punjab Legislative Assembly election?48¢48 %
- Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the next Punjab Legislative Assembly election?35¢35 %
- Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the next Punjab Legislative Assembly election?10¢10 %
- Will the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) win the most seats in the next Punjab Legislative Assembly election?6¢6 %
4 %47,5 %AAPVolum 3,4k $
1 %35 %INCVolum 2,4k $
5 %10 %BJPVolum 1,8k $
5 %6,4 %SADVolum 789,3 $
AAP leads trader consensus for the 2027 Punjab Legislative Assembly election at 46.5% implied probability, ahead of INC at 34.5%, BJP at 13.5%, and SAD at 10.8%, reflecting its incumbency advantage and recent municipal election strength. Early candidate announcements, including Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann’s renomination from Dhuri, alongside electoral roll revisions and Election Commission preparations, have reinforced AAP positioning ahead of the February-March vote. Recent defections of several AAP MLAs to BJP and ongoing talks of a BJP-SAD alliance introduce volatility, while internal Congress dynamics and emerging Panthic factions add uncertainty. Polls show AAP projected to secure a majority in many surveys, yet vote-share erosion and multi-cornered competition keep probabilities closely balanced and sensitive to alliance developments or further shifts in voter sentiment.
Regler
Legislative Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Punjab, India, in February–March 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Punjab Legislative Assembly election. Independent candidates will not be considered for resolution. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Punjab Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).