- Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?69¢69 %
- Will Delcy Rodríguez win the next Venezuelan presidential election?11¢11 %
- Will Jorge Rodríguez win the next Venezuelan presidential election?6¢6 %
- Will Donald Trump win the next Venezuelan presidential election?3¢3 %
- Will Manuel Rosales win the next Venezuelan presidential election?3¢3 %
- Will Marco Rubio win the next Venezuelan presidential election?3¢3 %
- Will Henrique Capriles win the next Venezuelan presidential election?2¢2 %
- Will Edmundo González win the next Venezuelan presidential election?1¢1 %
- Will Diosdado Cabello win the next Venezuelan presidential election?1¢1 %
- Will Nicolás Maduro win the next Venezuelan presidential election?<1¢<1 %
3 %68,5 %María Corina MachadoVolum 43,9k $
10,5 %Delcy RodríguezVolum 12,4k $
5,9 %Jorge RodríguezVolum 1k $
2,9 %Donald TrumpVolum 2,1k $
2,8 %Manuel RosalesVolum 281,3 $
2,5 %Marco RubioVolum 591,6 $
2,1 %Henrique CaprilesVolum 414,7 $
1,2 %Edmundo GonzálezVolum 4,9k $
1,1 %Diosdado CabelloVolum 3k $
1 %Nicolás MaduroVolum 772,5 $
Trader consensus assigns María Corina Machado the highest implied probability at 68.5 percent for the next Venezuelan presidential election, reflecting sustained opposition visibility and eligibility dynamics after the contested 2024 process. Lower odds for Nicolás Maduro at 0.9 percent and other regime-linked figures such as Delcy Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello align with documented institutional and diplomatic pressures on the current administration. Markets price most remaining candidates near 50 percent or lower, underscoring uncertainty over primary participation rules, ballot access, and potential coalition alignments ahead of the vote. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and domestic court rulings on candidate status remain key variables that could shift positioning before resolution.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Venezuelan presidential election to take place by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. Any appointment or selection of a president not made through a popular election does not qualify as a presidential election. If no Venezuelan presidential election takes place by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If a Venezuelan presidential election takes place, but no winner is officially declared by 11:59 PM ET on the 365th calendar day following the date of the election, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the winner of the election as officially declared by the National Electoral Council of Venezuela, or a successor Venezuelan electoral authority.