- Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank?68¢68 %
- Will Klaas Knot be the next President of the European Central Bank?31¢31 %
- Will Olli Rehn be the next President of the European Central Bank?2¢2 %
- Will Nadia Calviño be the next President of the European Central Bank?<1¢<1 %
- Will Joachim Nagel be the next President of the European Central Bank?<1¢<1 %
- Will François Villeroy de Galhau be the next President of the European Central Bank?<1¢<1 %
8 %68 %Pablo Hernández de CosVolum 2,6k $
9 %30,5 %Klaas KnotVolum 2,9k $
2,5 %Olli RehnVolum 798,5 $
2 %0,9 %Nadia CalviñoVolum 935,4 $
1 %0,6 %Joachim NagelVolum 971 $
1 %0,5 %François Villeroy de GalhauVolum 1,2k $
Pablo Hernández de Cos leads the market at 62% implied probability after Spain formally nominated the former Bank of Spain governor and current BIS general manager as its candidate on November 6, securing broad domestic backing including from the likely incoming government. Klaas Knot follows at 37.5% following the Netherlands’ official nomination of its former central bank chief the same week. These remain the only two candidates submitted by the euro-area deadline, narrowing the field ahead of Eurogroup review and European Council consideration of a broader package deal covering additional ECB executive board vacancies in early 2027. Lagarde’s announced early departure on February 7 has accelerated the timeline, with leaders targeting a decision by year-end. Lower-priced alternatives reflect the absence of competing formal nominations and the political requirement for qualified-majority support among euro-area governments.
Regler
Christine Lagarde has announced that she will step down as President of the European Central Bank on February 7, 2027 (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261029~abbb6dc64b.en.html). This market will resolve to the first individual who is formally appointed as President of the European Central Bank to succeed Christine Lagarde. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as President of the European Central Bank by the European Council. A recommendation by the Council of the European Union alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or acting President of the European Central Bank will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market will immediately resolve to the formally appointed individual regardless of whether that individual subsequently takes office or whether another individual holds the office after the appointment. If no such President is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Council and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.