- Iran Nuke before 2027?4¢4 %
Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and 2026 have degraded key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reporting no observed repair or reconstruction activity at damaged locations since June 2025. Iran retains a stockpile of approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, but inspectors lack access to verify its status or the sites involved. Diplomatic momentum has accelerated in early November 2026, as Tehran reviews Qatari-mediated proposals addressing its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and asset access, signaling potential constraints through negotiations rather than rapid weaponization. These developments, alongside Iran's public commitments against nuclear weapons and limited evidence of breakout activity, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.4 percent probability assigned to "No."
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".