- Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?19¢19 %
Howard Lutnick continues to serve as the active U.S. Secretary of Commerce with no public indications of resignation, removal, or transition as of mid-November 2026. He has led recent efforts to restart Canada-U.S. trade discussions focused on Section 232 tariffs for steel, aluminum, lumber, and autos, while advancing talks on an India bilateral agreement and semiconductor tariff frameworks. These developments align with his established role overseeing Commerce Department tariff and investment matters under the Trump administration. Absent any announced departures, Senate actions, or White House signals of change within the narrow window to year-end, trader consensus assigns a high implied probability that Lutnick will remain in the position through December 31.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.