- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?51¢51 %
- Will David Lisnard win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?19¢19 %
- Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?17¢17 %
- Will Marine Le Pen win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?8¢8 %
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?6¢6 %
- Will Christine Lagarde win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?4¢4 %
- Will Gabriel Attal win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?1¢1 %
- Will François Hollande win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Jordan Bardella win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Dominique de Villepin win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Sébastien Lecornu win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
5 %50,5 %Jean-Luc MélenchonVolum 20,4k $
18,9 %David LisnardVolum 19,2k $
1 %16,5 %Édouard PhilippeVolum 16,5k $
7,5 %Marine Le PenVolum 7,2k $
6 %Raphaël GlucksmannVolum 7k $
2 %3,9 %Christine LagardeVolum 3,8k $
1 %Gabriel AttalVolum 3,3k $
0,9 %François HollandeVolum 3,4k $
0,9 %Bruno RetailleauVolum 3,8k $
0,4 %Jordan BardellaVolum 3,7k $
0,2 %Sébastien LecornuVolum 2,9k $
Recent polling averages place Marine Le Pen well ahead in the first round on April 18, 2027, leaving the contest for second place highly competitive among Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann, and right-leaning figures. David Lisnard has gained visibility and edged Bruno Retailleau in several surveys, reflecting fragmentation on the conservative side and debates over a potential primary. Mélenchon maintains steady support on the left while Philippe’s centrist positioning shows modest erosion. Trader pricing for second place, led by Lisnard and Philippe, captures this volatility and the impact of alliance negotiations or late candidate withdrawals before the April deadline. Further shifts could arise from October surprise events or clarified right-wing strategies.
Regler
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).