- Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?7¢7 %
Recent Senate composition and procedural rules drive trader expectations that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court. The body has never impeached an STF justice, and removal requires Senate presidential approval to advance any complaint followed by a two-thirds vote. The February 2027 Senate leadership election favors Davi Alcolumbre, who has signaled restraint on such requests despite a strengthened right-wing bloc. The November 9 closure of the long-running fake news inquiry by Chief Justice Edson Fachin, after removing Moraes as rapporteur, further reduces a key flashpoint. Internal court negotiations and the justice’s anticipated 2027 presidency underscore the institutional and political hurdles that sustain the current consensus.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.