- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?2¢2%
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?1¢1%
- Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?5¢5%
- Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?2¢2%
- 2%1,5%5.0%$ 178,5K vol.
- 1,4%5.5%$ 217,5K vol.
- 0,6%6.0%$ 109,7K vol.
- 3%5,4%7.0%$ 38,5K vol.
- 2,1%10.0%$ 54K vol.
Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate at 4.1% in October 2026, down from 4.2% in September, with nonfarm payrolls rising 165,000 after upward revisions to prior months. The rate has fluctuated between 4.1% and 4.4% through 2026, reflecting resilient hiring in professional services, healthcare, and transportation alongside historically low layoffs. Persistent inflation, with core PCE near 3.4%, has prompted the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening bias, with the September 2026 SEP projecting a 4.1% median unemployment rate for the year and markets pricing a December rate hike. Upcoming catalysts include the December employment report and FOMC meeting, which could influence any late-year softening in demand or further participation shifts.
Regels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.