- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?97¢97%
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?1¢1%
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- 97,5%0 (0 bps)$ 9,5 mln. vol.
- 1%1,2%1 (25 bps)$ 3,7 mln. vol.
- 0,3%2 (50 bps)$ 3,5 mln. vol.
- 0,2%3 (75 bps)$ 3 mln. vol.
- 0,2%4 (100 bps)$ 2,8 mln. vol.
- 0,2%5 (125 bps)$ 3,1 mln. vol.
Elevated inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside resilient economic growth and a stable labor market, has driven traders to price a 97.4% implied probability of zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026. The FOMC held rates steady at the 3.75%-4.00% range in late October after a September hike, upgraded its growth assessment to a “strong pace,” and signaled that additional tightening may be needed, with futures markets assigning high odds of a December increase. Persistent price pressures, including broad-based CPI readings near 3.7% in September, reinforce the hawkish stance. A sharp, sustained decline in inflation data or unexpected labor-market weakening ahead of year-end could still open the door to cuts, though such shifts appear limited given current conditions.
Regels
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.