- Will annual inflation be 3.2% or less in October?<1¢<1%
- Will annual inflation be 3.3% in October?<1¢<1%
- Will annual inflation be 3.4% in October?<1¢<1%
- Will annual inflation be 3.5% in October?<1¢<1%
- Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?2¢2%
- Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?88¢88%
- Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?8¢8%
- Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?<1¢<1%
- Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?<1¢<1%
- Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?<1¢<1%
- Will annual inflation be 4.2% in October?<1¢<1%
- Will annual inflation be 4.3% or more in October?<1¢<1%
- 0,2%≤3.2%$ 4,7K vol.
- 0,2%3.3%$ 4,1K vol.
- 0,2%3.4%$ 3,4K vol.
- 0,7%3.5%$ 3,7K vol.
- 1%2,3%3.6%$ 5K vol.
- 2%87,5%3.7%$ 19,4K vol.
- 8%3.8%$ 6,1K vol.
- 0,9%3.9%$ 6,1K vol.
- 1%4.0%$ 4,7K vol.
- 0,2%4.1%$ 4,4K vol.
- 0,3%4.2%$ 3,6K vol.
- 0,2%≥4.3%$ 5K vol.
Recent September CPI data at 3.7% year-over-year, driven by a 9.1% gasoline surge, has anchored trader expectations for October at the same level, with the Cleveland Fed nowcast at 3.74%. Analysts project a 0.3% monthly headline increase as energy prices flatten after the prior spike, while shelter costs hold steady near 0.3% and core goods/services show modest mean-reversion. This produces an 89.5% implied probability for 3.7%, reflecting limited scope for deviation ahead of the November 10 BLS release. Market-implied odds price only modest upside risk to 3.8% at 8.1%, consistent with persistent energy pass-through and above-target inflation influencing the Fed’s policy stance.
Regels
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.