- Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?2¢2%
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 20% and 24.9%?<1¢<1%
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?10¢10%
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?86¢86%
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%?3¢3%
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 40% and 44.9%?<1¢<1%
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be at least 45%?<1¢<1%
- 1,5%<20%$ 7,8K vol.
- 0,7%20-24.9%$ 5,6K vol.
- 9%10%25-29.9%$ 24,7K vol.
- 17%86,1%30.0-34.9%$ 35,9K vol.
- 2%3,4%35–39.9%$ 6,8K vol.
- 0,8%40-44.9%$ 5,8K vol.
- 0,5%45%+$ 5,8K vol.
Recent central bank REM survey data and INDEC releases position the 30–34.9% band as the consensus outcome for 2026 annual inflation, with the latest September year-over-year reading at 33.4% and median analyst forecasts now at 30.4%. Persistent monetary tightening, fiscal surpluses, and exchange-rate stability have driven monthly CPI prints into the 1.7–1.9% range, supporting gradual disinflation from prior peaks, though core measures remain elevated and regulated-price adjustments continue to add inertia. Downward revisions to 2026 GDP growth forecasts and signs of a technical recession introduce modest upside risks to the path, while the next inflation release and ongoing IMF program reviews represent near-term catalysts that could reinforce or shift the current market-implied distribution.
Regels
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.