- 앨버타는 2026년에 독립에 찬성표를 던질까요?6¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Polls throughout 2026 have shown consistent majorities of 60-72% of Albertans favoring remaining a province of Canada, versus 19-35% support for commencing the legal process toward a future binding separation referendum. The October 19 referendum poses exactly that preliminary, non-binding question rather than a direct vote on independence. Premier Danielle Smith, whose United Conservative government placed the item on the ballot following competing citizen petitions, has repeatedly stated her personal support for staying in Canada and described the exercise as allowing debate while advancing provincial interests within Confederation. Constitutional requirements, including First Nations consultations on treaty rights and eventual federal approval, further preclude any binding independence outcome in 2026 even if the process option prevails. These factors underpin trader consensus that Alberta will not vote for independence this year.