- 호르무즈 해협의 교통이 8월 31일까지 정상으로 돌아오는가?<1¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 90% below pre-conflict baselines of 60–130 vessels per day, with Kpler and UKMTO data showing single-digit to low-teen daily crossings as of August 24 amid attacks, Iranian enforcement, and selective blockades. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at approximately 40 times normal levels, pricing most commercial operators out of the chokepoint and forcing rerouting or idling of tankers and carriers. Brent crude has traded near $92 amid supply concerns, while related Polymarket contracts reflect trader consensus on prolonged disruption tied to sanctions, naval activity, and stalled diplomatic channels. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation or de-escalation signals around U.S. sanctions enforcement and regional security arrangements that could alter throughput thresholds measured by IMF Portwatch 7-day averages.