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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Recent August 2026 polling from firms including Quaest, PoderData, Nexus, and Datafolha shows President Lula (PT) leading first-round vote intentions at 38–42 percent, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) consistently placed second at 31–37 percent. Third-place candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema register in the low single digits. These surveys, taken after the official campaign launch around mid-August and party conventions, indicate a wide margin between second and third, supporting the current market pricing for second place. Flávio’s positioning draws from his party’s PL base, endorsement by former president Jair Bolsonaro, and consolidation of much of the right-wing vote, while Lula benefits from incumbency and PT alliances including vice-presidential nominee Geraldo Alckmin. No major late-August shifts have altered this ordering, though runoff matchups have tightened. The October 4 first-round date leaves limited time for additional candidates to surge.