- 2026年末までに米国の景気後退はあるか？8¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Robust U.S. economic momentum and a stable labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026. Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026 following 2.1% in Q1, with full-year forecasts clustered near 2.0–2.2% fueled by AI-related capital spending and resilient consumer outlays. The unemployment rate remains near 4.1–4.5%, reflecting a balanced labor market rather than contraction, while July CPI eased to 3.4%. Trader consensus embeds this baseline of moderate expansion, consistent with low smoothed recession probabilities near 0.6%. Key swing factors include further Middle East energy disruptions that could elevate inflation and prompt sharper Federal Reserve tightening, or an abrupt deterioration in hiring that lifts unemployment above 5%.