- 2026年にFRBの利下げは全く行われないのでしょうか？87¢
- 2026年にFRBの利下げが1回行われますか？10¢
- 2026年にFRBの利下げが2回行われる可能性はありますか？3¢
- 2026年にFRBの利下げが3回行われますか？<1¢
- 2026年にFRBの利下げが4回行われる可能性はありますか？<1¢
- 2026年にFRBの利下げが5回行われますか？<1¢
- 2026年に6回のFRB利下げは実施されるか？<1¢
- 2026年にFRBは7回の利下げを実施するか？<1¢
- 2026年にFRBの利下げが8回行われる可能性はありますか？<1¢
- 2026年にFRBが9回利下げを実施する可能性はありますか？<1¢
- 2026年にFRBの利下げが10回行われる可能性はありますか？<1¢
- 2026年にFRBの利下げが11回行われますか？<1¢
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a hawkish policy stance are anchoring trader expectations for zero federal funds rate cuts through the end of 2026. With the benchmark range held at 3.50–3.75% following the July FOMC meeting, core PCE inflation remains near 3.3–3.7% amid tariff pass-through, elevated energy costs from Middle East tensions, and AI-driven demand pressures. Recent minutes highlighted that many participants see tightening as likely necessary if inflation fails to moderate, while the labor market stays stable and growth continues. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, pricing minimal easing probability as participants await clearer disinflation signals before any policy pivot. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases will serve as key tests of whether these conditions persist.