- US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?>99¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes. Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify. The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct. The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The US Treasury Department's August 24 announcement of Operation Economic Outcast, including immediate sanctions on nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels plus new sectoral determinations targeting digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping, underpins the 100% implied probability for new sanctions by Monday. These steps expand secondary sanctions exposure and set compliance timelines for foreign entities tied to Iranian oil revenue, procurement networks, and evasion tactics amid the ongoing conflict. Treasury officials signaled further enforcement actions, including potential designations of major financial institutions, within days. Realistic factors that could alter the outcome include delays in implementing the previewed end-of-week measures or shifts in enforcement scope if diplomatic timelines or compliance windows extend beyond the resolution period.