- 2026年9月の会合後、FRBは50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げを行いますか？<1¢
- 2026年9月の会合後にFRBは金利を25bps引き下げますか？1¢
- 2026年9月の会合後、FRBの金利に変更はありませんか？65¢
- 2026年9月会合後にFRBは金利を25ベーシスポイント引き上げますか？35¢
- 2026年9月の会合後、FRBは金利を50ベーシスポイント以上引き上げますか？<1¢
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Recent U.S. inflation readings have remained well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with headline PCE near 4.1% and core measures around 3.4% through mid-2026, fueled by elevated energy prices and supply-chain strains tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict. At its July meeting the FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9–3 vote, but the three dissents favoring a quarter-point increase signaled hawkish pressure. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to no change at the September 15–16 meeting while still pricing a meaningful chance of a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting the balance between still-firm labor-market conditions and the need for additional data releases before policymakers act.