- 中央党（C）は有効投票総数の5％未満を獲得しますか？4¢
- 中央党（C）は有効投票数のうち5%から7%の間を獲得しますか？30¢
- 中道党（C）は有効票全体の7％から9％の間で得票しますか？60¢
- 中央党（C）は有効投票総数の少なくとも9％を獲得しますか？7¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Centre Party (C) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
The Center Party (Centerpartiet) has shown consistent gains in recent Swedish polling ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election, with its latest Novus survey placing support at 8.3 percent—an increase of 1.2 points and the fourth consecutive monthly rise. This positions the party above its 6.7 percent result from 2022 and aligns with other August surveys clustering between roughly 6 and 8 percent. Gains have come primarily from Social Democrats and undecided voters, reflecting the party's positioning within the centre-left opposition bloc amid a tightening race where the overall centre-left lead has narrowed to 2.6 points. Trader consensus favoring a 7-9 percent outcome reflects these upward polling trends and the absence of major setbacks in the final campaign stretch.