- BSWは有効な第2投票のうち3％未満を獲得しますか？23¢
- BSWは有効な第二投票のうち、3％から5％の間で獲得しますか？66¢
- BSWは有効な第2投票のうち5％から7％の間を獲得しますか？12¢
- BSWは有効な第2投票の少なくとも7％を獲得しますか？<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polling for the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places BSW support at 3–4 percent across multiple institutes, including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, INSA, and Infratest dimap. This range reflects the party’s first state-level contest after stronger federal results in 2025, constrained by competition for left-leaning voters and the 5 percent entry threshold. Late-campaign developments, including internal BSW tensions in neighboring Thuringia, have not shifted state-level numbers meaningfully. Traders assign the highest probability to the 3–5 percent band because final surveys show little momentum toward crossing 5 percent or falling below 3 percent, with the outcome likely to hinge on turnout among undecided voters on election day.