- 2026年メイン州上院選挙の最終投票で、共和党候補が12%以上の差で勝利しますか？<1¢<1%
- 2026年メイン州上院選挙の決選投票で、共和党候補が9％〜12％の差で勝利しますか？5¢5%
- 2026年メイン州上院選挙の最終ラウンドで共和党候補者が6％から9％の差で勝利しますか？17¢17%
- 2026年メイン州上院選挙の最終投票で共和党候補が3%〜6%の差で勝利しますか？14¢14%
- 2026年メイン州上院選挙の決選投票で、共和党候補が0%〜3%の差で勝利しますか？12¢12%
- 2026年メイン州上院選挙の決選投票で民主党候補が0％〜3％の差で勝利しますか？15¢15%
- 2026年メイン州上院選挙の決選投票で、民主党候補が3〜6％の差で勝利しますか？17¢17%
- 2026年メイン州上院選挙の決選投票で民主党候補が6％〜9％の差で勝利しますか？15¢15%
- 2026年メイン州上院選挙の決選投票で民主党候補が9%-12%の差で勝利しますか？11¢11%
- 2026年メイン州上院選挙の決選投票で民主党候補が12％以上の差で勝利しますか？<1¢<1%
Recent polling averages place Democrat Troy Jackson ahead of Republican incumbent Susan Collins by roughly 2 points in the Maine Senate race, consistent with the market's balanced pricing across narrow victory margins for either candidate. Maine's independent voters and moderate political culture continue to anchor the contest, with Collins drawing on her long record of bipartisan work and crossover support while Jackson benefits from higher Democratic turnout in a state that leaned Democratic in the prior presidential cycle. Multiple debates through mid-October and heavy outside spending on both sides have kept messaging focused on health care, energy costs, and the economy without producing decisive shifts. Late developments such as final ad waves, turnout patterns among independents, or national political momentum could still widen the result before November 3.
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The first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final reported round of the specified election. The final reported round refers to the last tabulated round that features two or more candidates. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Maine Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.