- 2026年中間選挙後に民主党は下院を支配するでしょうか？89¢
- 2026年中間選挙後、共和党は下院を支配することになるでしょうか？13¢
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Democrats hold an 88.5% implied probability in the Polymarket market on 2026 House control, reflecting a midterm environment heavily tilted against the president's party. With Republicans defending a narrow majority after 2024 and President Trump's approval ratings in the high 30s to low 40s, the generic congressional ballot shows Democrats ahead by roughly six to seven points in recent surveys. Historical patterns indicate the president's party has lost House seats in nearly all postwar midterms, particularly when approval sits below 45%. Forecasters project Democrats gaining enough seats for a majority despite Republican advantages from mid-decade redistricting in several states. The election on November 3 remains more than two months away, leaving room for shifts in the national mood or late-cycle developments to alter the trajectory.