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Parliamentary elections to elect the Kurultai of Kazakhstan are scheduled to take place on August 23, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-most number of seats in the Kurultai of Kazakhstan as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Kazakh government.
Auyl secured a clear second-place finish in Kazakhstan’s August 23, 2026, Kurultai election—the first vote for the new unicameral legislature created by March constitutional reforms—with preliminary results from the central electoral commission showing roughly 6.26% of the vote, well ahead of other contenders. Exit polls conducted by multiple institutes aligned closely on this ordering, reflecting the party’s established rural and agrarian base that had already delivered it second position in 2023. Trader consensus reflected in the market prices therefore rests on these confirmed early tallies and the substantial gap to parties such as Respublica and Aq Jol. Final certification or any late procedural adjustments remain the only realistic avenues that could alter the ranking, though current margins make major shifts improbable.