- 10年物米国債利回りは2027年以前に3.0%を下回りますか？3¢
- 2027年までに10年国債利回りが1.0%を下回りますか？2¢
- 2027年までに10年物米国債利回りが3.7%を下回りますか？5¢
- 10年物国債利回りは2027年より前に3.9%を下回りますか？10¢
- 10年物米国債利回りは2027年以前に3.5%を下回りますか？7¢
- 2027年までに10年物米国債利回りが2.0％を下回ることはありますか？2¢
- 10年物米国債利回りは2027年までに3.6％を下回りますか？5¢
- 10年物米国債利回りは2027年より前に3.8％を下回りますか？7¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.78% as of early September 2026, after climbing from sub-4.3% levels earlier in the year amid sticky inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and heavy Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion. Persistent labor market strength, AI-driven growth expectations, and geopolitical oil shocks have supported higher real yields and reduced prospects for near-term Fed easing under Chair Kevin Warsh. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, alongside August CPI and PPI releases due September 10-11, represent key near-term catalysts that could influence whether yields retest lower levels before year-end or remain anchored by supply dynamics and policy uncertainty.